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Statistical Eruption Forecast for the Chilean Southern Volcanic Zone: Typical Probabilities of Volcanic Eruptions as Baseline for Possibly Enhanced Activity Following the Large 2010 Concepción Earthquake : Volume 10, Issue 10 (08/10/2010)

By Dzierma, Y.

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Book Id: WPLBN0003987451
Format Type: PDF Article :
File Size: Pages 16
Reproduction Date: 2015

Title: Statistical Eruption Forecast for the Chilean Southern Volcanic Zone: Typical Probabilities of Volcanic Eruptions as Baseline for Possibly Enhanced Activity Following the Large 2010 Concepción Earthquake : Volume 10, Issue 10 (08/10/2010)  
Author: Dzierma, Y.
Volume: Vol. 10, Issue 10
Language: English
Subject: Science, Natural, Hazards
Collections: Periodicals: Journal and Magazine Collection, Copernicus GmbH
Historic
Publication Date:
2010
Publisher: Copernicus Gmbh, Göttingen, Germany
Member Page: Copernicus Publications

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Wehrmann, H., & Dzierma, Y. (2010). Statistical Eruption Forecast for the Chilean Southern Volcanic Zone: Typical Probabilities of Volcanic Eruptions as Baseline for Possibly Enhanced Activity Following the Large 2010 Concepción Earthquake : Volume 10, Issue 10 (08/10/2010). Retrieved from http://community.worldlibrary.net/


Description
Description: SFB 574 and Institute for Geosciences, Christian-Albrechts-Universität, Kiel, Germany. A probabilistic eruption forecast is provided for ten volcanoes of the Chilean Southern Volcanic Zone (SVZ). Since 70% of the Chilean population lives in this area, the estimation of future eruption likelihood is an important part of hazard assessment. After investigating the completeness and stationarity of the historical eruption time series, the exponential, Weibull, and log-logistic distribution functions are fit to the repose time distributions for the individual volcanoes and the models are evaluated. This procedure has been implemented in two different ways to methodologically compare details in the fitting process. With regard to the probability of at least one VEI ≥ 2 eruption in the next decade, Llaima, Villarrica and Nevados de Chillán are most likely to erupt, while Osorno shows the lowest eruption probability among the volcanoes analysed. In addition to giving a compilation of the statistical eruption forecasts along the historically most active volcanoes of the SVZ, this paper aims to give typical eruption probabilities, which may in the future permit to distinguish possibly enhanced activity in the aftermath of the large 2010 Concepción earthquake.

Summary
Statistical eruption forecast for the Chilean Southern Volcanic Zone: typical probabilities of volcanic eruptions as baseline for possibly enhanced activity following the large 2010 Concepción earthquake

Excerpt
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