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Provision of Boundary Conditions for a Convection-permitting Ensemble: Comparison of Two Different Approaches : Volume 21, Issue 2 (12/03/2014)

By Marsigli, C.

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Book Id: WPLBN0003992185
Format Type: PDF Article :
File Size: Pages 11
Reproduction Date: 2015

Title: Provision of Boundary Conditions for a Convection-permitting Ensemble: Comparison of Two Different Approaches : Volume 21, Issue 2 (12/03/2014)  
Author: Marsigli, C.
Volume: Vol. 21, Issue 2
Language: English
Subject: Science, Nonlinear, Processes
Collections: Periodicals: Journal and Magazine Collection (Contemporary), Copernicus GmbH
Historic
Publication Date:
2014
Publisher: Copernicus Gmbh, Göttingen, Germany
Member Page: Copernicus Publications

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Paccagnella, T., Montani, A., & Marsigli, C. (2014). Provision of Boundary Conditions for a Convection-permitting Ensemble: Comparison of Two Different Approaches : Volume 21, Issue 2 (12/03/2014). Retrieved from http://community.worldlibrary.net/


Description
Description: ARPA-SIMC, HydroMeteoClimate Service of ARPA Emilia-Romagna, Bologna, Italy. The current resolution of the operational global models favours the possibility of driving convection-permitting limited-area model (LAM) simulations directly, sparing the necessity for an intermediate step with a coarser-resolution LAM. Though the resolution of global ensemble systems is generally lower than that of deterministic ones, it is also possible to consider this opportunity in the field of ensemble forecasting. The aim of this paper is to investigate the effect of this choice for driving a convection-permitting ensemble based on the COSMO model, for a specific application, namely the forecast of intense autumn precipitation events over Italy. The impact of the direct nesting in the ECMWF global ensemble is compared to a two-step nesting, which makes use of a LAM ensemble system with parametrised convection. Results show that the variability introduced in the geopotential field by the direct nesting is usually contained within the uncertainty described by the standard ensemble, and differences between pairs of members following different nesting approaches are generally smaller than the ensemble error, computed with respect to analysis. The relation between spread and error is even improved by the direct nesting approach. In terms of precipitation, it is found that the forecasts issued by members with different nesting approaches generally have differences at spatial scales between 16 and 180 km, depending on the case, hence not negligible. Nevertheless, the skill of the LAM ensemble precipitation forecasts, evaluated by means of an objective verification, is comparable. Therefore, the overall quality of the 2.8 km ensemble for the specific application is not deteriorated by the provision of lower resolution lateral boundary conditions directly from the global ensemble.

Summary
Provision of boundary conditions for a convection-permitting ensemble: comparison of two different approaches

Excerpt
Amengual, A., Romero, R., Homar, V., Ramis, C., and Alonso, S.: Impact of the lateral boundary conditions resolution on dynamical downscaling of precipitation in mediterranean Spain, Clim. Dynam., 29, 487–499, doi:10.1007/s00382-007-0242-0, 2007.; Buizza, R., Houtekamer, P. L.,Toth, Z.,Pellerin, G., Wei, M., and Zhu, Y.: A Comparison of the ECMWF, MSC, and NCEP Global Ensemble Prediction Systems, Mon. Weather Rev., 133, 1076–1097, 2005.; Davies, T.: Lateral boundary conditions for limited-area models, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 140, 185–196, doi:10.1002/qj.2127, 2014.; de Elia, R., Laprise, R., and Denis, B.: Forecasting skill limits of nested, limited-area models: a perfect-model approach, Mon. Weather Rev., 130, 2006–2023, 2002.; Denis, B., Laprise, R., Côté, J., and Caya, D.: Downscaling ability of one-way nested regional climate models: The big-brother experiment, Clim. Dynam., 18, 627–646, 2001.; Ducrocq, V., Braud, I., Davolio, S., Ferretti, R., Flamant, C., Jansa, A., Kalthoff, N., Richard, E., Taupier-Letage, I., Ayral, P.-A., Belamari, S., Berne, A., Borga, M., Boudevillain, B., Bock, O., Boichard, J.-L., Bouin, M.-N., Bousquet, O., Bouvier, C., Chiggiato, J., Cimini, D., Corsmeier, U., Coppola, L., Cocquerez, P., Defer, E., Delanoë, J., Di Girolamo, P., Doerenbecher, A., Drobinski, P., Dufournet, Y., Fourrié, N., Gourley, J. J., Labatut, L., Lambert, D., Le Coz, J., Marzano, F. S., Molinié, G., Montani, A., Nord, G., Nuret, M., Ramage, K., Rison, B., Roussot, O., Said, F., Schwarzenboeck, A., Testor, P., Van Baelen, J., Vincendon, B., Aran, M., and Tamayo, J.: HyMeX-SOP1, the field campaign dedicated to heavy precipitation and flash flooding in the northwestern Mediterranean, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., online first, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00244.1, 2013.; Ferretti, R., Pichelli, E., Gentile, S., Maiello, I., Cimini, D., Davolio, S., Miglietta, M. M., Panegrossi, G., Baldini, L., Pasi, F., Marzano, F. S., Zinzi, A., Mariani, S., Casaioli, M., Bartolini, G., Loglisci, N., Montani, A., Marsigli, C., Manzato, A., Pucillo, A., Ferrario, M. E., Colaiuda, V., and Rotunno, R.: Overview of the first HyMeX Special Observation Period over Italy: observations and model results, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 10, 11643–11710, doi:10.5194/hessd-10-11643-2013, 2013.; Gerard, L., Piriou, J.-M., Brožková, R., Geleyn, J.-F., and Banciu D.: Cloud and Precipitation Parameterization in a Meso-Gamma-Scale Operational Weather Prediction Model, Mon. Weather Rev., 137, 3960–3977, 2009.; HYMEX – HYdrological cycle in the Mediterranean EXperiment, Hymex Project, available at: www.hymex.org, last access: 4 March 2014, 2010–2020.; Marsigli, C., Montani, A., Nerozzi, F., Paccagnella, T., Tibaldi, S., Molteni, F., and Buizza, R.: A strategy for High–Resolution Ensemble Prediction. Part II: Limited–area experiments in four Alpine flood events, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 127, 2095–2115, 2001.; Marsigli, C., Montani, A., and Paccagnella, T.: A spatial verification method applied to the evaluation of high–resolution ensemble forecasts, Meteorol. Appl., 15, 125–143, 2008.; Marsigli, C., Montani, A., and Paccagnella, T., 2013. Test of a COSMO-based convection-permitting ensemble in the Hymex framework, COSMO Newsletter No. 13, available at: http://www.cosmo-model.org/content/model/documentation/newsLetters/default.htm, last access: 4 March 2014, 2013; Molteni, F., Buizza, R., Marsigli, C., Montani, A., Nerozzi, F., and Paccagnella, T.: A strategy for High–Resolution Ensemble Prediction. Part I: Definition of Representative Members and Global Model Experiments

 

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