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Forecasting Characteristic Earthquakes in a Minimalist Model : Volume 10, Issue 6 (30/11/-0001)

By Vázquez-prada, M.

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Book Id: WPLBN0004019575
Format Type: PDF Article :
File Size: Pages 7
Reproduction Date: 2015

Title: Forecasting Characteristic Earthquakes in a Minimalist Model : Volume 10, Issue 6 (30/11/-0001)  
Author: Vázquez-prada, M.
Volume: Vol. 10, Issue 6
Language: English
Subject: Science, Nonlinear, Processes
Collections: Periodicals: Journal and Magazine Collection, Copernicus GmbH
Historic
Publication Date:
-0001
Publisher: Copernicus Gmbh, Göttingen, Germany
Member Page: Copernicus Publications

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Pacheco, A. F., Gómez, J. B., Vázquez-Prada, M., & González, Á. (-0001). Forecasting Characteristic Earthquakes in a Minimalist Model : Volume 10, Issue 6 (30/11/-0001). Retrieved from http://community.worldlibrary.net/


Description
Description: Departamento de Física Teórica and BIFI, Universidad de Zaragoza, Pedro Cerbuna 12, 50009 Zaragoza, Spain. Using error diagrams, we quantify the forecasting of characteristic-earthquake occurrence in a recently introduced minimalist model. Initially we connect the earthquake alarm at a fixed time after the ocurrence of a characteristic event. The evaluation of this strategy leads to a one-dimensional numerical exploration of the loss function. This first strategy is then refined by considering a classification of the seismic cycles of the model according to the presence, or not, of some factors related to the seismicity observed in the cycle. These factors, statistically speaking, enlarge or shorten the length of the cycles. The independent evaluation of the impact of these factors in the forecast process leads to two-dimensional numerical explorations. Finally, and as a third gradual step in the process of refinement, we combine these factors leading to a three-dimensional exploration. The final improvement in the loss function is about 8.5%.

Summary
Forecasting characteristic earthquakes in a minimalist model

 

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